The Gaza ceasefire deal marks a significant moment in a long-standing conflict, following 460 days of intense warfare. Negotiated by Qatar, the United States, and Egypt, the agreement focuses on three main goals: an immediate ceasefire, prisoner exchanges, and the rehabilitation of Gaza. While offering a temporary pause in the violence, the deal highlights the complexities of achieving lasting peace in a region burdened by deep-rooted tensions and unresolved issues. This introduction explores the key elements of the ceasefire and its potential impact on the ongoing Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Key Role of Qatar, US, and Egypt in the Negotiations
The discussions had been ongoing in Qatar, with the country playing a pivotal role in the negotiations. The United States had also made several proposals, while Egypt, as a neighbouring country, was actively involved. Together, these three parties—Qatar, the US, and Egypt—contributed significantly to the dialogue. High-ranking officials, including US representatives like Secretary of State Antony Blinken and President Joe Biden, Egypt’s President, Qatar’s Foreign Minister, and representatives from Hamas and Israel, participated in these talks.
The Core Agenda of the Talks
The discussions centred on a three-point agenda:
- Immediate Ceasefire and Withdrawal: A call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the withdrawal of Israeli troops.
- Prisoner Exchange: Hamas would release Israeli captives, while Israel would return thousands of prisoners detained in its facilities.
- Rehabilitation of Gaza: Facilitating the return of displaced Gazan residents to their homes and initiating a comprehensive rehabilitation process.
US Pressure After Presidential Election
Analysts suggest that the process gained momentum after the US presidential election, where Donald Trump emerged victorious. Trump reportedly issued a stern warning to all parties, demanding a ceasefire before his inauguration. He warned that failure to comply would result in severe consequences for both sides.
The Deal and the Toll of War
The deal has been approved after 460 days of war. During this conflict, Israel killed approximately 47,000 Palestinians, with around 1lac more injured. Gaza, home to over 2 million people, saw approximately 150,000 individuals directly affected by the violence. The human loss has been immense, and the destruction of infrastructure is catastrophic. Around 80% of the buildings in Gaza are now uninhabitable due to relentless bombing by Israel.
Hostages and the Power Dynamics
Throughout this time, the key factor that gave Hamas an advantage was the Israeli hostages. Currently, there are 94 Israeli hostages held in Hamas tunnels, which has put domestic pressure on Netanyahu, as Israelis are demanding the safe return of their relatives.
Israel’s Perspective on Human Life
Israel often emphasizes to the world that it values every single life. This perspective is rooted in their smaller population and their assertion that they are fighting a war for survival and seeking to secure their borders. This is why they adopt an aggressive stance and stress the importance of every life—this forms part of their narrative.
Disparity in Prisoner Exchanges
Israel equates the value of one Israeli life to that of thousands of Palestinians. For example, when Hamas released one Israeli hostage, Israel, in return, released 100 Palestinians. Hamas officials, therefore, refer to these hostages as “keys.”
Internal Criticism of the Israeli Cabinet
The Israeli cabinet includes extreme-right politicians who have criticized such deals, arguing against releasing many Palestinians in exchange for one Israeli. These Palestinian prisoners often include those facing death sentences. Hamas has demanded the return of prisoners convicted and sentenced to death, a demand that Israel had previously deemed unacceptable.
Phases of Deal
The deal comprises three phases, each with specific objectives and actions.
1st Phase
In the first phase, lasting six weeks, 33 Israeli prisoners will be released gradually, including civilian women, female soldiers, children, elderly men, and other vulnerable individuals. Concurrently, Palestinian detainees held by Israel will also be freed. Hamas has stipulated that they will not release more than the initial 33 captives unless Israel completely withdraws from Gaza and a long-term ceasefire is established.
Israel will withdraw its forces from densely populated areas of Gaza, but not the entire region. However, Israel may interpret this withdrawal selectively and could continue military actions in other areas, as observed. Israel continued bombing even after the agreement was signed.
During this time, residents will return to their homes, many of which are severely damaged, and aid trucks will be allowed into these areas. Negotiations will continue throughout this phase.
2nd Phase
The second phase focuses on the release of all remaining captives by Hamas, which includes approximately 60 to 70 stable male soldiers. In return, Israel will prepare for a gradual withdrawal from Gaza. Both sides will aim to establish a peaceful environment, with sustainable calm anticipated by the 16th day of this phase.
3rd Phase
Finally, the third phase involves the rehabilitation and reconstruction of Gaza, a process expected to take several years. Contracts for rebuilding will be awarded to various construction companies, potentially from Arab nations, Turkey, Qatar, Egypt, or the United States. U.S. companies with existing Israeli shares may also play a role in these efforts. The gradual reconstruction will aim to restore the region and improve living conditions for its residents.
Israel’s Gaza Policy: Challenges and Perceived Setbacks
Far-right elements in the Israeli government, including Minister Ben-Gvir, are expressing strong opposition. He has even threatened to leave the government if the deal is implemented. He stated, “We hope to complete the mission in Gaza one day.” Last year, Netanyahu reiterated his goal of completely eliminating Hamas. However, this goal has not been achieved. If Israel had succeeded, they would not be negotiating or signing deals with Hamas. This situation reflects Israel’s failure to “finish the job.”
Hamas Leaders Attitude During Negotiations
During the negotiations, Hamas reportedly displayed a confrontational attitude toward Israeli officials, communicating exclusively through intermediaries rather than engaging directly. Hamas officials conducted their discussions from the first floor, while Israeli officials remained on the ground floor, symbolizing the lack of direct dialogue. They aggressively asserted their demands throughout the process.
According to Israeli sources, prior to the deaths of Ismail Haniyeh and Yahya Sinwar, Hamas officials exuded greater confidence. However, following their assassination, Hamas softened its tone, paving the way for progress toward finalizing the ceasefire agreement.
Role oF Trump and Biden Administration in Negotiations
Former U.S. President Donald Trump played a significant role in accelerating the deal by issuing strong warnings to both sides about the potential consequences if the ceasefire was not signed before his inauguration. Trump’s broader strategy included narratives of ending global conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and the Middle Eastern hostilities.
Ultimately, the historic ceasefire agreement was signed three days before Trump took office. While both the Biden administration and Trump’s team have sought credit for this development, it was Trump’s decisive intervention that proved pivotal in steering the negotiations toward completion.
A special envoy for the Middle East appointed by Trump was also involved in negotiations. Alongside the Biden administration, he participated in the talks. Analysts noted that such collaboration between an outgoing and incoming administration is rare in history, as it is uncommon for a new administration to support the efforts of the previous one during a transition period.
Trump’s envoy for the Middle East reportedly pressured Netanyahu to accept the deal. After three to five days of intense negotiations, everything was finally agreed upon.
Hezbollah leader Message to Palestinians
Hezbollah leader Naeem Qasim congratulated the Palestinians on this achievement. He stated that it demonstrates the continued existence and strength of resistance groups, which have been posing significant challenges to Israel. He further emphasized that these groups compelled Israel to agree to a ceasefire deal.
Who Won the War?
Now, the question arises: who won? While Israel managed to assassinate top Hamas leaders and caused significant casualties among Palestinians, it failed to achieve its ultimate goal of completely eliminating Hamas. So, who won, and who lost?
Israel achievements
On the ground, Israel achieved several objectives.
- Israel weakened Hezbollah by assassinating its top leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah. This compelled Hezbollah to agree to a ceasefire.
- It signed a deal with Lebanon, including Hezbollah, ensuring that no attacks would be launched from Lebanon.
- It dealt a significant blow to the Houthis with the support of the US and UK
- In Syria, Israel claimed victory when Bashar al-Assad’s government, backed by Iran, was destabilized. This disrupted a key weapons supply route to the “axis of resistance.” Consequently, Hezbollah’s position was weakened, and Iran’s influence in Syria diminished.
- Israel also orchestrated significant operations, including bombing Iran’s embassy in Syria and assassinating top Iranian commanders, such as members of the Pasdaran-e-Inqilab (Revolutionary Guards).
- Even prominent Iranian officials, including Ismail Haniyeh, Iran’s president, and its foreign minister, died in a helicopter incident. These incidents signified a series of strategic successes for Israel over the last 6–7 months
Israel Failures
- Technically, Israel secured many tactical victories on the ground, but it ultimately failed to achieve a decisive success. In fact, the war was a significant defeat for Israel on several fronts.
- In Gaza, Hamas remained resilient, even after the death of Yahya Sinwar, a significant loss for the group. Despite setbacks, Hamas’s ground operations were largely unaffected, continuing to challenge Israel.
- Groups like Rizvan in Lebanon opposed them.
- Israel struggles against attacks from multiple fronts—including Hamas, Hezbollah, Iranian-backed forces in Syria, and Houthis from Yemen— highlight the war’s inconclusive and costly nature.
- The global backlash against its actions, particularly reports of its treatment of children, women, and prisoners, broadcast by outlets like CNN and BBC, fuelled widespread protests.
- Israel actions instilled generational hatred among Palestinian children, posing long-term risks for Israel.
- Israel was unable to eliminate Hamas entirely
Comparison
If we analyse the entire war, the Middle East suffered significant losses, while Israel emerged as a villain widely criticized and disliked. Even its own allies expressed disapproval—France criticized it, the Kier Starmer government criticized it, and even the Biden administration voiced disapproval. Mohammed bin Salman, who was on the verge of recognizing Israel, backed off. Protests against Israel erupted worldwide.
On the other hand, Hamas and the Axis of Resistance suffered ground and technical losses, taking substantial blows. However, they were not completely eliminated. As stated by Iran’s Supreme Leader, the Axis of Resistance is expected to recover, and Hamas will likely regroup. Palestinians, driven by revenge against Israel, may naturally join Hamas. This ceasefire is temporary, and the conflict is expected to continue, as it has for the past 60 to 70 years.
Analysing the Rehabilitation Process
Now, we will examine how the process of rehabilitation is being carried out. Israel had previously stated that no people should reside on this land and proposed relocating the population to other countries. However, the United States rejected this idea, arguing that it is impossible to displace a population of 2 million people so easily. China and Russia also played a role in convincing Israel to reconsider its stance.
Way Forward
Currently, Israel is contemplating the creation of an additional buffer zone within the already small area of Gaza. While a buffer zone already exists, they aim to extend it by a few more kilometers.
The United States has proposed establishing a Palestinian Authority to manage governance and ensure that Hamas does not regain control. All major states agree that until a two-state solution is implemented, no definitive resolution can be reached.
Conclusion
The Gaza ceasefire deal represents a significant yet temporary pause in a long-standing and deeply entrenched conflict. While the agreement marks a momentary step towards stability, it falls short of addressing the root causes of the decades-long strife between Israel and Palestine. Both sides have suffered substantial losses, with Israel facing international backlash and domestic criticism, while Hamas and its allies endured significant military and leadership setbacks.
The three-phase agreement, focusing on ceasefire, prisoner exchanges, and rehabilitation, underscores the complex dynamics of war, negotiation, and rebuilding. However, the enduring animosity, generational resentment, and unresolved issues of sovereignty and governance suggest that the ceasefire is not a definitive solution but rather a temporary truce in an ongoing conflict.
Moving forward, the implementation of a two-state solution, greater international cooperation, and efforts to ensure the rehabilitation of Gaza’s devastated population and infrastructure are essential to achieving lasting peace. Until then, the region remains a flashpoint of tension, with the potential for future escalations lingering on the horizon
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